I anticipate that most black Americans will believe that an Obama defeat will have stemmed in substantial part from a prejudice that robbed 40 million Americans of the chance to become president on the day they were born black. They will of course understand that race wasn't the only significant variable -- that party affiliation, ideological proclivities, strategic choices and dumb luck also mattered. But deep in their bones, they will believe -- and probably rightly -- that race was a key element, that had the racial shoe been on the other foot -- had John McCain been black and Obama white -- the result would have been different.
This conclusion will be accompanied by bitter disappointment, and in some quarters, stark rage. In the early stages of the Obama campaign, his rival, Hillary Clinton, outpolled him among blacks in part because many didn't believe that he stood a chance of prevailing. Then came Iowa. And the near-victory in New Hampshire. When blacks realized that Obama's candidacy represented a serious drive for electoral power with an appreciable chance of success, they gravitated overwhelmingly to the Illinois senator. Read Article Here.
This is a real question: what will Black America do if Obama loses unfairly? I think that if Obama does lose on issues, then it will be difficult to harbor bitter feelings. However, if his race and all of the smear is the reason why he loses, then I think anger and bitterness will be around for a long time. And then the black and youth votes will certainly change. People who are excited for the election will lose interest. It will show that their vote doesn't matter when the elderly decide an election. I unfortunately believe that his race and the negative ads will be a large part of the exit polls.
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