Is This Really the Only Option Left?

John McCain’s fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day.

A flurry of new polls shows Barack Obama gaining in several battleground states – most notably Florida, Pennsylvania and swing states throughout the West. Officials worry early voting, which is under way in important states such as Ohio, is likely to favor Obama in this toxic political climate. 

Several state GOP chairmen in interviews urged the McCain campaign to be more aggressive in hitting Obama’s vulnerabilities, such as his past relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other problematic associations from Chicago.  Read Article Here.

More Obama Events

This is pretty rocking. Not quite Ohio but still good.

The Bruce Springsteen/Billy Joel show is not as sweet to me.  Mostly because I really don't like Billy Joel.  Read About It Here.

VP Debate - The Very Definition of Low Impact

The amount of time and staff power being devoted to this was evidence of concern among Mr. McCain’s associates that Ms. Palin’s early triumphs — a well-received convention speech, her drawing of big crowds — has been overtaken by a series of setbacks, creating higher stakes for her in the debate Thursday with the Democratic nominee for vice president, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware.

“I think she has pretty thoroughly — and probably irretrievably — proven that she is not up to the job of being president of the United States,” David Frum, a former speechwriter for President Bush who is now a conservative columnist, said in an interview. “If she doesn’t perform well, then people see it.

“And this is a moment of real high anxiety, a little bit like 9/11, when people look to Washington for comfort and leadership and want to know that people in charge know what they are doing.”  Read Article Here.

There are three reasons for this. First, Biden does not want to look condescending. For the same reason, he plans on referring to Palin as “Gov. Palin” during the debate and never as “Sarah.” (He will sometimes refer to John McCain as “John,” however, because they have been senators together for many years.)

Second, Biden knows the press is going to pounce on any mistakes, and so he does not need to.

Third, and most important, Sarah Palin is not Biden’s true target.

“Joe Biden’s No. 1 job during the vice presidential debate is to keep the focus on the top of the ticket,” the Biden debate prepper told me. “He is going to keep the focus on John McCain.”

This is an arguable strategy. After all, McCain is the experienced one on the Republican ticket, the one whose credentials to be commander in chief from Day One are not in much question.  Read Article Here.

The title of this post comes from a West Wing quote, Josh is afraid that Leo is unprepared for the VP debate and Toby reminds him that the debate doesn't really matter.  It is hard to say if this debate truly matters.  As the articles point out America votes for the top of the ticket.  Biden is going to have to walk a tight rope so he does not seem: cruel, patronizing, or elitist.  Palin has to demonstrate that she is more than an SNL skit gone horribly wrong.  I will be blogging live throughout the event, mostly to mock Palin.

Bush Wants Decisive Action...Again

Appearing drawn and frustrated, Bush said in remarks at the White House that this is a "critical moment" for the U.S. economy. He noted that yesterday's single-day loss on the stock market, estimated at more than $1 trillion, was greater than the highest estimated cost of his administration's bailout plan.

"The consequences will grow worse each day if you do not act," Bush said, addressing dissident lawmakers. He added a moment later: "Our economy is depending on decisive action from the government...This is what elected leaders owe the American people."

"Our country is not facing a choice between action and the smooth functioning of the free market. We are facing a choice between action and the real prospect of financial hardship" that will be felt across the board, Bush said.  Read Article Here.

I am glad that Congress stood up to Pres. Bush and his cronies.  The last thing that the nation needs is decisive action without fully understanding the long term consequences.  Isn't decisive action what got the US in Iraq? Afghanistan? Illegal Wiretaps? The Patriot Act? This mess in the first place?  To quote Mr. President, "fool me once, shame on—shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again".

Bailout: A Day Later

Slate on Republican Candidates Chances with Election:

For in the meantime, the chaos they've created by coming to the table and then throwing a fit works to their disadvantage. Each time a deal is close to done and then gets scuppered, the market (and its many participants) freaks out. Huge quantities of wealth are destroyed. The markets fell about 8 percent after today's stunt, likely wiping out close to $1 trillion in wealth. In so doing, they're turning off whatever base the party had left on Wall Street and likely closing off a huge source of campaign cash. Asked for his evaluation of what took place today, Lawrence Fink, the CEO of asset management giant Blackrock, said, "Major disappointment came from the Republican side." A Republican congressman who shows up for a fundraiser in Manhattan this week is likely to get tarred and feathered. In some congressional races, I suppose financial dislocation and bank failures could plausibly be good news for Republican challengers—but only if the challengers can pin them on the incumbent Democrats.

BU Today interviewing Professor Simon Gilchrist:

If you were in Congress, would you have voted for this plan?

Yes. Last weekend’s bailouts of European banks highlight the fragility of the global financial system and how far and how rapidly this problem can spread. A financial meltdown would severely impair the ability of households and firms to obtain the credit necessary to continue funding ongoing operations and spending plans.

Based on the “financial accelerator” economic model I developed in conjunction with Ben Bernanke [chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors] and [NYU economist] Mark Gertler in the 1980s, my recent research suggests that even prior to this September’s events, the financial crisis was creating a drag of about 2 percent on GDP growth. Since then, things have gotten worse, and I anticipate that even with the bailout, we will see a mild recession in the coming year. However, without a bailout, it would likely be a severe global contraction. While people can argue over the details of the plan, it does put in place a mechanism by which the government can intervene to alleviate the systemic risk associated with this financial crisis.

In the short run, the bailout will unfreeze the interbank lending market, the commercial paper market, and other key financial markets required to finance short-term lending. This will reduce the cost of credit to consumers and firms and allow them to obtain financing that would otherwise be unavailable. This, in turn, will alleviate pressure on the economy and reduce unemployment and increase growth. In the long run, however, taxes will be raised or spending cut to pay for this. Also, lending standards will be tighter, which ultimately is probably a good thing. 

Politico ponders the future for Rep. Boehner:

The leader lost the support of some of his closest allies in the House — including Iowa Rep. Tom Latham and California Rep. Devin Nunes, two drinking buddies who helped lay the foundation for Boehner’s political comeback in 2006.

Another Boehner ally, Rep. Thaddeus G. McCotter of Michigan, physically turned his back on the leader during a tense closed-door GOP conference meeting Sunday night.

People who were in the room said McCotter left abruptly after Boehner told members not to attack one another. Boehner tried to reach out to McCotter as he left. McCotter kept walking.

Social Secutiry

Through talking points and campaign ads, Democrats are accusing GOP candidates of supporting President Bush’s past proposal to allow workers to invest Social Security retirement funds in the marketplace. Though the legislation died in 2005, you’d hardly know it from recent Democratic rhetoric.

“What we have seen as a result of this meltdown in the financial markets is that people’s future retirement savings are put at risk … and there are many members of Congress on the Republican side that supported the Bush Social Security privatization plan,” Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Sunday on C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers.”  Read Article Here.

Time to beat this dead horse again.

Good Day for Barr

Didn’t see that one coming, did you?

Today’s bailout vote in the House embarrassed President Bush, the congressional leaders of both parties – and, to some extent, both major-party presidential candidates. Obama and McCain both endorsed the bailout proposal, and its failure to pass the House puts the two men in an awkward position as negotiations start all over again.

There was, however, one presidential “contender” who got on the right side of this issue: former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr. Barr called today’s bill “the bailout from hell” and warned it would make Henry Paulson “an economic dictator, empowered to reengineer the economy as he sees fit.” As Obama and McCain carefully parse their language in response to developments on the Hill, Barr has no such burden: he got what he wanted.

Of the two major-party candidates, McCain finds himself in a somewhat more uncomfortable position going forward, having watched congressional Republicans desert the bailout bill after one of his campaign aides bragged about McCain’s role in corralling GOP support. But after this afternoon’s surprise revolt against the bailout, it’s hard to say either he or Obama had a really good day. Barr, on the other hand, had an unexpected moment in the sun.  

Read Article Here.