Obama and McCain Battle for States

The turmoil on Wall Street and the weakening economy are changing the contours of the presidential campaign map, giving new force to Senator Barack Obama’s ambitious strategy to make incursions into Republican territory, while leading Senator John McCain to scale back his efforts to capture Democratic states.

Mr. Obama has what both sides describe as serious efforts under way in at least nine states that voted for President Bush in 2004, including some that neither side thought would be on the table this close to Election Day. In a visible sign of the breadth of Mr. Obama’s aspirations, he is using North Carolina — a state that Mr. Bush won by 13 percentage points in 2004, and where Mr. Obama is now spending heavily on advertisements — as his base to prepare this weekend for the debate on Tuesday.

By contrast, Mr. McCain is vigorously competing in just four states where Democrats won in 2004: Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, followed by Wisconsin and Minnesota. His decision last week to pull out of Michigan reflected in part the challenge that the declining economy has created for Republicans, given that they have held the White House for the last eight years.  Read Article Here.

McCain Losing Virginia?

Virginia Republicans are warning that John McCain's prospects for winning a state that has been in the GOP column in every presidential election since 1964 could be in jeopardy. With Barack Obama treating the Old Dominion like a battleground state and reliable polls showing a margin-of-error race there, some are cautioning that McCain is making a critical mistake by allowing the Democratic nominee to outpace him in terms of visits and resources committed.

The two best indicators of which states the campaigns are serious about – time and money – tell the story.

Since wrapping up the Democratic nomination in June, Obama, his wife, Michelle, and his running mate Joe Biden have visited the commonwealth a combined 12 times. The candidate himself was in the Tidewater city of Newport News Saturday.

Obama is also plowing millions into Virginia, blanketing the airwaves with TV and radio ads, filling up mailboxes with leaflets and, along with the state party, operating 49 campaign offices.

Together, McCain and his running mate, Sarah Palin, have held just one campaign event in Virginia. And the campaign has taken its ads off the pricey Washington, D.C. network affiliates that reach into the entire swath of the Northern Virginia, the commonwealth’s most populous region.  Read Article Here.

McCain Out of Michigan

John McCain’s decision to cancel a campaign event in Michigan next week was not a matter of scheduling: Mr. McCain is giving up his effort to take the state back into the red column, concluding that economic distress there has simply put the state out of reach, according to Republicans familiar with the decision.  Read Article Here.

I am surprised McCain has pulled out of Michigan.  It is one of the swing states, I thought, he could grab.  Even with the economy being the main concern, McCain seemed like he had a chance to take it with his American Warrior rhetoric. If he won Michigan, I think it would put Ohio within his reach.

Early Voting

Yesterday opened Ohio's unusual week-long window in which voters can register and cast absentee ballots at the same time. Hundreds arrived in steady streams, part of a first wave of people already voting across the country, five weeks before Election Day.

Given Ohio's pivotal role in presidential races, its one-stop registration and voting drew attention -- and legal challenges.

But nationally, early voting, by mail or in person, is becoming more common and is likely to account for one-third of all votes cast in the November elections, up from 14 percent in 2000, predicts Paul Gronke, a researcher with the Early Voting Information Center in Portland, Ore.

That projection tracks with growth that three other election analysts have noted, with the rate of early voting rising from 20 percent in 2004 to 25 percent in 2006. Experts and state election officials have followed the growth in early voting for more than a decade.  Read Article Here.

Tossup States, Swing States, and You

You've heard of most of the battleground states before. Ohio and Florida are the two most famous, making all of the other swing states jealous because they've had movies made about them. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico are also among the traditional swing states that have supported candidates from both parties in recent elections.

The number of battleground states is not fixed. Different news organizations have varying counts. NBC, CNN, the Washington Post, the New York Times, Mark Ambinder, and Pollster.com, all see it slightly differently. The slight distinction among the different analysts is about which new states will be accorded the coveted "swing state" title and which traditional swing states should fall off the list. Indiana and North Carolina are new states flickering in the desirable "tossup" category, whereas Iowa, a state George W. Bush won in 2004, appears to be headed out of McCain's reach.

To determine the states that are truly competitive, we start with the states that historically have been close and then look at the current polls, which are now quite favorable for Obama. Statewide polls can be unreliable, though, because of small samples and crazy methodology, so analysts also look at other cues like party registration. If the party that is traditionally the underdog is signing up lots of new voters—perhaps enough to make up for the 2004 margin—it might hint that the state is really in play. In traditionally red Colorado, for example, Democrats have seen the number of registered voters grow. It's also worth checking who or what else is on the ballot: Anti-union initiatives in Colorado might help McCain, while popular candidates like Mark Warner, who is running for Senate in Virginia, might help Obama.  Read Article Here.

Bailout: A Day Later

Slate on Republican Candidates Chances with Election:

For in the meantime, the chaos they've created by coming to the table and then throwing a fit works to their disadvantage. Each time a deal is close to done and then gets scuppered, the market (and its many participants) freaks out. Huge quantities of wealth are destroyed. The markets fell about 8 percent after today's stunt, likely wiping out close to $1 trillion in wealth. In so doing, they're turning off whatever base the party had left on Wall Street and likely closing off a huge source of campaign cash. Asked for his evaluation of what took place today, Lawrence Fink, the CEO of asset management giant Blackrock, said, "Major disappointment came from the Republican side." A Republican congressman who shows up for a fundraiser in Manhattan this week is likely to get tarred and feathered. In some congressional races, I suppose financial dislocation and bank failures could plausibly be good news for Republican challengers—but only if the challengers can pin them on the incumbent Democrats.

BU Today interviewing Professor Simon Gilchrist:

If you were in Congress, would you have voted for this plan?

Yes. Last weekend’s bailouts of European banks highlight the fragility of the global financial system and how far and how rapidly this problem can spread. A financial meltdown would severely impair the ability of households and firms to obtain the credit necessary to continue funding ongoing operations and spending plans.

Based on the “financial accelerator” economic model I developed in conjunction with Ben Bernanke [chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors] and [NYU economist] Mark Gertler in the 1980s, my recent research suggests that even prior to this September’s events, the financial crisis was creating a drag of about 2 percent on GDP growth. Since then, things have gotten worse, and I anticipate that even with the bailout, we will see a mild recession in the coming year. However, without a bailout, it would likely be a severe global contraction. While people can argue over the details of the plan, it does put in place a mechanism by which the government can intervene to alleviate the systemic risk associated with this financial crisis.

In the short run, the bailout will unfreeze the interbank lending market, the commercial paper market, and other key financial markets required to finance short-term lending. This will reduce the cost of credit to consumers and firms and allow them to obtain financing that would otherwise be unavailable. This, in turn, will alleviate pressure on the economy and reduce unemployment and increase growth. In the long run, however, taxes will be raised or spending cut to pay for this. Also, lending standards will be tighter, which ultimately is probably a good thing. 

Politico ponders the future for Rep. Boehner:

The leader lost the support of some of his closest allies in the House — including Iowa Rep. Tom Latham and California Rep. Devin Nunes, two drinking buddies who helped lay the foundation for Boehner’s political comeback in 2006.

Another Boehner ally, Rep. Thaddeus G. McCotter of Michigan, physically turned his back on the leader during a tense closed-door GOP conference meeting Sunday night.

People who were in the room said McCotter left abruptly after Boehner told members not to attack one another. Boehner tried to reach out to McCotter as he left. McCotter kept walking.

Runnin' the Numbers

Obama is breaking open a presidential race that had once looked deadlocked.

State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much of September.

A new wave of polls released Wednesday showed decisive leads for Obama in the critical states of Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

That follows noticeable progress in polls in Virginia, which had looked safe for Sen. John McCain, and Florida, which had looked promising for McCain.

This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated state polls in the most closely contested battlegrounds.  Read Article Here.

New Numbers

Obama has also increased his advantage on two critical indicators—which candidate voters believe would better handle the economy, and which would bring "change" to Washington—that McCain had closed the gap on following his party's convention. And Democrats have broadened their lead in party affiliation after that too had tightened following McCain's addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket and acceptance of his party's nomination.

The shift appears to be tied, at least in part, to the turmoil on Wall Street. Wednesday's Washington Post-ABC poll found that for the first time this cycle, half of all voters view the economy and jobs as the single most important issue—five times more than cite the war in Iraq and a remarkable 13-point rise in the past two weeks. The CNN/ORC poll found that by nearly a two-to-one margin, 47 to 24 percent, voters believe Republicans “are more responsible for the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market.”  Read Article Here.

Race, Politics and Polls in Ohio

A striking feature of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, which was released Friday, was that while McCain is winning the support of 90 percent of Republican voters, Obama is only picking up 82 percent of the Democrats. These differing levels of party loyalty -- which might (note the conditional tense) be attributed to Palin for the Republicans and Obama's African-American heritage on the Democratic side -- partly explain why McCain leads 48 to 44 percent in the survey. (A Quinnipiac University poll gave Obama a 49-44 edge in Ohio over McCain, which underscores why slavishly following the gyrating surveys can be an exercise in frustration.)

But polls, which tend to put the undecided vote in single digits, may understate the volatility of the race. In the Ohio Poll, 19 percent of the state's voters said that they could change their minds before Election Day and another 4 percent were undecided. "I think voters know less at this point about Obama than they do about McCain," said Eric Rademacher, the co-director of the Ohio Poll. "The people who were saying that they could change their minds are those who normally don't pay attention to politics until after the convention."  Read Article Here.

Ohio is important to me right now.  Partially because everyday I am comparing BU to Miami, but also because Ohio will decide the winner of this election.  It has 20 electoral points and is the reason why Kerry lost the election.  The article makes me feel a little more optimistic about Obama's chances, but only a little.

There is Hope

I read this and saw a little ray of hope:

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama leads Republican rival John McCain in Ohio while McCain is ahead in Florida, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent in Ohio, the poll said. McCain got 50 percent support in Florida to 43 percent for Obama. In Pennsylvania, Obama has 48 percent support to 45 percent for McCain, a result within the poll's error margin. The three states are important to each campaign, as no one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of them.  Read Article Here.

This is also helps, but I would feel better if there were more solid blue.

Is this really necessary?; Economics; College; and The Count

The New York Times is considering the body language and meaning between McCain, Palin and Mrs. McCain's various embraces. I think this is pointless. Does this make any real difference in the election. All it confirms is that McCain was patriotic but is currently geriatric, and that no-one wants a hug from grandpa. Read Full Story Here.

John McCain has admitted that he does not understand economics. This is a serious problem. Here is the reason why: if he is elected President he and Congress will have to re-structure Fannie May and Freddie Mac. If this is not done properly, we could go further into recession and the housing market will get even worse, despite some reports of recovery. Read Full Story Here.

We are all in college. Which we need for our future. In this future we would all like to imagine that most of our teachers would remember us. Maybe not the first student that comes to mind but can at least recall with out going into records that we were in the class. The Republican nominee can not claim that she is remembered by most of her teachers. Read Full Story Here.

We have an almost straight count. With momentum on McCain's side and an alibi for white people to not vote for a black man, the race is almost tied. Two polls show McCain leading, others show Obama leading or that the race is too close to really call. Can anyone really be undecided anymore. Read Full Story Here.

Travel; Electoral Math; C.R.E.A.M.

George W Bush has taken a record amount of vacation days over the past eight years. Last time I checked it was over a full year in fact. Now we find out the Republican VP nominee has been billing her state for nights spent at home and for her families travel. While I am sure there have been plenty of Democrats who have done the same thing, but I think we should not condone this practice. Also what possible business could a Seven Year Old have in New York City that requires a $700 a night hotel room? Read Full Story Here.

Obama is taking a different strategy than past Democrats: spread out. Instead of focusing solely on a few key battle ground states Obama is going after as many states as possible.

The idea is to hold on to all of the states that Democrat John F. Kerry won in 2004, then peel off enough traditionally Republican states to put Obama over the top. So, even at this late point in the contest, the Obama operation boasts dozens of paid staff and multiple offices in states such as Montana and North Dakota.

Other states that Republicans won in 2004, but which Obama is now targeting, include Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. And the campaign says it is not abandoning its ambitions in Alaska, even after Palin's selection as McCain's running mate. Read Full Story Here.

Lastly, as the great Wu-Tang proclaimed "Cash Rules Everything Around Me - CREAM", Obama does not have the money that was expected. Recently his fundraising efforts have not netted the same kind of results as earlier in the race. Can this really be expected? As the race goes on people grow less enthusiastic and less interested in donating again. Hillary supporters have not donated in ways that responsible adult should. Remember that your candidate was this close to being the nominee. I was for Richardson he went nowhere as a candidate, but there are rumors of a cabinet position. Also as the economy continues to be lackluster, people making minimum wage continue to have less to donate. Read Full Story Here.